The Rarometer
Every card on this site gets a rarity score out of 10. The scale is the same for every set, and anyone can check it: it comes from how many packs it takes, on average, to pull a card like it.
Why a score, and why this one
Card makers print their own grades (Common, Rare, Ultra Rare, a serial number, a colour), and no two makers mean the same thing by them. Collectors' tools mostly rank cards by price. We never show a price or a value, so we needed a measure that is about rarity alone, that works across makers, and that a viewer can check from the card and the odds. One pack is one episode, so the measure is simple: "about one in this many packs".
Odds to score
Ordinary cards score 1 to 5. Hits, meaning signed cards, memorabilia and one-of-ones, score 6 to 10, so every hit outscores every ordinary card.
| Packs to pull one | Ordinary card | Hit: signed, memorabilia or 1/1 |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1 (several a pack) | 1 | — |
| 1 to 8 | 2 | 6 (under 10) |
| 8 to 25 | 3 | 7 (10 to 50) |
| 25 to 80 | 4 | 8 (50 to 150) |
| 80 or more | 5 | 9 (150 to 400) |
| 10 (400 or more) |
- A signed or memorabilia one-of-one always scores 10.
- An unsigned one-of-one scores between 7 and 9; a printing plate at least 6.
- A score is set by the card's tier, the maker's own grade or parallel, not by the player on it.
Where the odds come from
Each tier's odds carry their source, in this order of preference: the maker's published odds; the maker's stated pack-out or box guarantee; odds worked out from the maker's own figures, with the working shown; and, where the maker says nothing, our own pulls. Measured odds are scored from the cautious end of a 95% range, and only start setting a score on their own after eight pulls of that tier. A tier with no evidence yet gets a floor, shown as an estimate, never a guess.
Who gets the shirt
From pack 21, any card scoring 2 or more can win a shirt. When two cards want the same place, the first difference decides:
- the higher score;
- the stronger kind: signed, then memorabilia, then one-of-one, then ordinary;
- the rarer pull, when the two cards' odds differ by more than a quarter;
- the more established player, from public records on the day the card was pulled;
- still level: the card already holding the shirt keeps it, or, between two players, a head-to-head decided on camera.
Two scales, one season
Packs 1 to 20 were scored on our first scale, from the print run, and posted with those scores, which stay on record. From pack 21 the Rarometer scores everything, including the Futera cards already in the XIs, so a Futera autograph that showed 8 now reads 7. Rewind the season bar on any page and you see each moment on the scale it used. A rule change only ever applies forward: no shirt is lost to a re-score, only to a rarer card.
Getting sharper with every pack
Every card logged is a pull record. As the packs add up, our measured odds tighten, and any change to a tier is dated and recorded. The odds and scores for every card are on its own page; the spread of every pull is on the numbers.